Gulf Shores, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

191
FXUS64 KMOB 050042
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
642 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast before MVFR
ceilings and showers move in from the west tomorrow morning. Winds
will be southerly and steadily increase into the day on Sunday.
/13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2025/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 402 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2025

A rather potent system is expected to move through Sunday night
bringing gusty winds, life threatening beach conditions and the
potential for some strong to severe storms with damaging winds and
possibly a tornado or two to parts of the area.

Synopsis...A rather potent trough will move into the area Sunday
into Sunday night as shortwave ridging lifts off into the
Atlantic. A strong surface low will move across the Ohio Valley
with a strong arctic front in tow. Southwesterly flow will
overspread the area as a tongue of moisture surges inland as a
weak warm front surges north. This will allow for isolated to
scattered showers storms to develop during the day on Sunday. As
the surface cold front moves in from the west, a strong squall
line will likely develop along the front and push across the area
Sunday night. Expect areas to pickup around an inch or so of rain
tapering off east of I-65 during the overnight hours Sunday into
early Monday morning. Behind the front, temperatures will plummet
rapidly into the 30s and 40s. Highs on Monday may even struggle to
get above 40 degrees depending on how quickly the system moves
through and how quickly temperatures drop.

Severe thunderstorms...The severe forecast for this system remains
difficult as with most winter-time systems. Most of the area
probably will not see severe thunderstorms except across our far
western portions of our area where the best jet dynamics move in
around midnight or just before midnight Sunday before lifting off
to the northeast. Given the deep layer wind fields, shear will
not be an issue with rather large curved hodographs supportive of
organized storms likely in the form of a squall line (QLCS). The
presence of a 50-60 knot 850mb low level jet will allow for high
shear around 40 knots in the lowest kilometer along with SFC-1KM
SRH values approaching 300 to 400 m2/s2. The question that remains
revolves around instability or the lack there of. Overall trends
have settled and even the high resolution guidance (which tends to
handle winter time instability better) is struggling with lining
up the better instability. The lack of instability, especially
with eastward extent will be the limiting factor in this event. In
these high shear/ low CAPE (instability) setups we heavily rely
on strong upper level support and lift and this will likely be
confined right along the front likely keeping the QLCS potential a
little higher. Recent trends have been for the forcing to move a
little quicker than originally expected which may yield a rapidly
weakening line than originally anticipated. However, as the line
enters our area from the west, there appears to be a small window
as it progresses across southeastern Mississippi where upper level
forcing will be sufficient to support a severe threat. This area
has been highlighted by a slight risk given the slightly higher
confidence. Damaging winds will likely be the primary threat given
the strong low level flow, but also be supportive of QLCS
mesovortex development and thus a potential QLCS tornado threat
across southeastern Mississippi in surface instability can be
realized. As the line moves through Alabama and the far western
Florida Panhandle late Sunday night, the strong low level flow may
be enough to support a localized damaging wind threat with any
stronger storms but a more widespread severe risk seems rather low
confidence and unlikely once we cross the state line into
Alabama.

Wind....As the upper trough moves in a rather tight pressure
gradient will develop between the upper ridge to our east and the
deepening low to our west. This will allow for rather strong low
level flow to develop across the area beginning Sunday afternoon
and lasting overnight. 925 mb winds will intensify to nearly 45
knots just a few thousand feet off the surface in the evening.
This low level jet coupled with some level of surface instability
despite being the overnight hours will allow for strong wind gusts
to mix down to the surface. As a result, wind gusts up to 35 mph
will be possible late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Once
again the limiting factor an maybe a stronger gradient wind event
will be the limited instability and mixing. For now we will likely
stay just below advisory criteria.

Coastal Hazards...In addition to the severe potential, we are
looking at the potential for at least High Surf Advisory
conditions along the coast of the western Florida Panhandle into
coastal Alabama Sunday afternoon into Monday with strong southerly
winds bringing surf heights upwards of 5 to 7 feet. There is
potential for surf heights to rise to near 8 feet, particularly if
the winds end up being a bit stronger than expected. A Low risk
of rip currents today becomes a Moderate risk by tonight and a
High risk by Sunday into Sunday night. BB/03 /22

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 402 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2025

In the extended, temperatures mid week and possible winter weather
the end of the week remain the biggest items to deal with.

Looking at the synoptics, a mean upper trough over the eastern Conus
moves off, with a weak upper ridge moving over the Mississippi River
through mid week. Surface high pressure moves over the Mid-
Mississippi River Valley, keeping the majority of the Southeast
under cold northerly flow through mid week. Shortwave energy moving
through the ridge passes over the Southeast the end of the week.
Guidance is advertising a surface low developing over the western
Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night with this energy. The surface low
then moves northeast across the forecast area the end of the week.

Through mid week, the influx of cold air with the continued
northerly flow will keep temperatures well below seasonal norms.
High temperatures in the mid to upper 50s north of I-10 are
expected, with low to mid 50s south. Low temperatures in the 20s
over the majority of the forecast area (around 30 along the coast)
are expected Monday through Wednesday nights. Combined with the
continued northerly winds, apparent temperatures dropping into the
13F to 20F range are expected, with Cold Weather Advisories
expected.

Thursday into Saturday, increasing isentropic upglide will bring
rain to land portions of the forecast area as the surface low
approaches, with a few thunderstorms interspersed over the Gulf. If
the surface low takes a more southerly path, or is a bit quicker in
moving in, there is a possibility of freezing rain or sleet as the
precipitation moves in. This current package says no, with the
airmass remaining warm enough ahead of the advancing precipitation
as low level flow becomes more east to southeasterly, and
radiational cooling cloud limiting cloud cover overspreads the
forecast area. Will need to monitor, though, with model
inconsistency a problem. Low temperatures Thursday night are
expected to range from around 30 northeast of a Butler to Opp line,
mid to upper 30s southwest, with sounding just warm enough to keep
the falling precipitation liquid as it begins to overspread the
forecast area later Thursday night. Again, will have continue
monitoring the forecast for Thursday night into Friday. High
temperatures in the mid 40s to around 50 Thursday rise into the
upper 40s north of Highway 84 to mid 50s south of I-10.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 402 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2025

Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Gulf Waters
starting late tonight, followed by a Gale Watch starting Sunday
evening and continuing through Monday morning. Gale conditions
remain likely over the far offshore waters and a Gale warning will
likely be needed for frequent gusts. Moderate southeasterly flow
will quickly increase this evening to Small Craft Exercise
Caution criteria, followed by a strong onshore flow late tonight
and Sunday ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west.
A moderate to strong offshore flow is expected on Monday in the
wake of the front and advisory conditions may continue into the
middle of next week. BB/03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      50  71  42  46  27  47  25  49 /  20  40  90  10   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   52  70  53  54  30  48  30  49 /  10  30  90  20   0   0   0   0
Destin      51  70  60  60  32  49  32  51 /   0  20  90  30   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   40  67  48  49  25  45  23  46 /  10  40  80  10   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  44  68  32  42  24  44  23  45 /  20  60 100   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      40  66  40  42  25  43  22  43 /  10  40 100  10   0   0   0   0
Crestview   41  69  56  56  25  48  23  49 /  10  30  90  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CST Sunday through late Monday
     night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 6 PM CST Monday for
     ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CST Sunday through late Monday
     night for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 6 PM CST Monday for
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for
     GMZ630>636.

     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday
     for GMZ650-655-670-675.

     Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for GMZ650-
     655-670-675.

&&

$$

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